Derek in Denver Sports

I don’t blame Bridich for boldly trying to fix the bullpen this offseason. The Rockies play at altitude, so there’s not an easy way to heal a bullpen, other than through development and/or taking chances on older guys or pitchers with a history of injuries. He just overcommitted this year to create the most expensive bullpen in league history.

Jake McGee’s big contract wasn’t quite deserved, but the choice to retain him is understandable since he was already a proven member of the bullpen. The Rockies probably should have picked between Wade Davis and Brian Shaw. I take that back—they should have looked into the future somehow and not signed Brian Shaw.

Shaw is zero for four in save opportunities and that’s just the first woeful stat for a sorry season that has finally found Shaw on the disabled list.

The other problem with this money spending is that it’s taking up resources that could have been spent on their own guys. While no one could have foreseen the reemergence and utter dominance of Adam Ottavino, he’s now due a big raise next season.

The Rockies best taste of the offseason may be trading some assets like Ottavino and D.J. LeMaheuiu. At least fans would be able to watch them pursue a ring elsewhere.

At this point, the Rockies performances from the bullpen feel like a Road Runner cartoon. How is the Rockies pitching staff going to let this one get away? Stay tuned. It will be spectacular. I just wish they could add some Looney Tunes sound effects to lessen the pain.

Some of the ‘best’ bullpen losses have included the three leads blown on Father’s Day, Brian Shaw giving up his first career grand slam in another wasted 7^th inning and Adam Ottavino being squeezed by the umpire in the strike zone this week. All of those happened in the second half of June.

The number of losses attributed to the bullpen actually seems pretty small in comparison with their overall record—just 15 at the writing of this article out of 42. Brian Shaw has lost five; Musgraves three; Davis, McGee and Rusin two. Three more losses came out of the bullpen, including one from Ottavino.

The Rockies bullpen ERA is the worst in the league. They’ve given up the second most runs of any set of relievers in baseball. This doesn’t even factor in the implosions by the bullpen when the games were still manageable.

No relief from the summer heat? Blame the Rockies bullpen.

Sadly, the rest of the team started to get it together in June. The Rockies have miraculously only used five starters and Jon Gray was settling back into his position there. The early struggles of Ian Desmond and Carlos Gonzalez were fading, as the Rockies bats got hot around the lineup.

Everything was setting up well for the Rockies except for the set-up men themselves.  Teams don’t often go on miraculous runs in baseball and the Rockies used both of their’s last decade in 2007 and 2009. Another miracle is all that can keep Colorado’s baseball hopes alive in 2018.

With Nolan Arenado’s contract expiring after next season, the rest of this season might be best spent trying to fix things for next year. Hopefully, the solution is something other than throwing money at the plate.

This rule places a lot more importance on starting pitchers in the National League.

Managers would also have to try and stretch out starts to get that extra at-bat. Assume a starter is pitching with runners on second and third with one out in the fifth inning. It’s a situation where a manager might currently bring a reliever in from the bullpen. With the hybrid DH rule, a manager might be more likely to keep the starting pitcher in the game if he is expected to bat in the next inning.

This actually adds new strategic elements to the game, which makes things more interesting—even if it makes keeping a scorecard harder.

There are thousands of tweets and articles about how the National League needs to adopt a designated hitter—virtually every time a pitcher looks terrible at the plate. I believe the hybrid DH is a better option to make the game more fun.

I love the strategy of baseball—the odds and the possibilities. To me, this is the best way to preserve that aspect of baseball, while keeping it competitive.

For decades, the American League has been the stronger league, even if the games in that league are less interesting. Not only do I think the hybrid DH would even the playing field, I could see the American League one day adopting this rule.

As a National League guy, this is a war I want to win.

In the history of the Denver Nuggets franchise, all eras end the same way—without championships and with hard feelings between the players/coach and the franchise. That list includes David Thompson, Doug Moe, Alex English, Dikembe Mutombo, Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups and George Karl.

It’s the way that things go in Denver.

It’s hard to think that LeBron James would end his time here differently. The Golden State Warriors are the titans of the West—unstoppable with the perfect combination of superstars and a supporting cast. That’s excluding the damage that the Houston Rockets, Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers could do to the LeBron Nuggets.

So believing that LeBron James could rise above that is crazy, but anything less than a championship would signify a failure. That sounds a lot like the situation that confronted another Denver transplant.

The Peyton Manning Connection

In the middle of Peyton Manning’s final season, when he couldn’t stay on the field and lost the job to Brock Osweiler, it felt like the Manning era would be an overall failure. Despite the great football and prolific offense, there was no way that Manning could lead the Broncos to the Super Bowl.

And yet he did, with the help of his teammates.

That single championship sealed a legacy for Peyton in Denver. While the tenure wasn’t as long as his time in Indianapolis, Denver claims co-ownership of Manning. With two Super Bowl trips, one trophy and an MVP award, it’s impossible to separate Manning’s career from Denver.

LeBron would come to Denver as nothing more than a placeholder. If the Nuggets failed to win a championship, these years would be seen as Michael Jordan’s time with the Washington Wizards—an afterthought to his illustrious career.

With one championship, the Nuggets could claim a piece of LeBron James. With two championships, he might be remembered more in Denver than Miami (this being the tail-end of his career). With three championships, a number equal to his previous championships—tying him with Jordan for six all-time—Denver gets to claim half of James in the same way the city claims Manning.

James would be celebrated from the moment he arrived. James would be revered in the same way Denver loved Ray Bourque.

He might leave this town with a sense of disappointment though. He could be thought of with the same despair as Mike Hampton, Paul Kariya/Teemu Selanne or Allen Iverson. All of these men were excellent players who didn’t help bring a championship to the city.

James is different. He’s an all-time great. He would leave a permanent mark on any franchise he went to that didn’t have a championship-filled history. For the Boston Celtics or the Los Angeles Lakers or San Antonio Spurs, LeBron James would just be an era. For the Nuggets, he’s the biggest thing that ever happened to the franchise, instantly.

LeBron’s Legacy Issue 

We’re only having this conversation because James is chasing a legacy—a legacy to rival Michael Jordan’s.

In the course of the Eastern Conference Finals, all anyone could talk about is, who was better? James or Jordan.

It’s a tired argument that I’m not particularly interested in settling. For me, the greatest argument takes away from the NBA’s rich history. It’s trying to reduce the NBA to remembering only one great player, like Babe Ruth or Wayne Gretzky. The NBA is a history rich league that seems to ignore its history.

Don’t give me a Jordan vs. LeBron debate, if you’re unwilling to talk about LeBron’s merits alongside Wilt Chamberlin, Bill Russell, Dr. J, Larry Bird and Magic Johnson as well.

Instead of these speculative pieces in the offseason, basketball would be better served if its writers became historians, diving deeper into the sport’s history and culture.

With the current era of speculation, eras of basketball will be forgotten. New fans might not realize how good a player Carmelo Anthony really was for the Nuggets.

Melo Out LeBron

I still get mad about the 2003 draft lottery. The Nuggets were so bad the year before that they could barely draw a crowd. It felt like the team was the only NBA franchise with a chance of being relegated (like in the soccer English Premier League). The Nuggets were tied for the best odds in the draft lottery.

So, inevitably, Cleveland won. LeBron James went to his hometown team.

Carmelo Anthony came to Denver because Detroit foolishly picked Darko Milicic.

Carmelo Anthony became the center of Denver Nuggets basketball. He is the best offensive player in franchise history, but he only won two playoff series in his time here (both in 2009). When he left Denver, he betrayed Nuggets fans.

Anthony is an NBA orphan at this point. Denver fans haven’t forgiven him. He disappointed in New York and created discontent in Oklahoma City. When his NBA career ends, who will celebrate him?

James could chase legacy-defining championships in Denver, a city that Anthony wrote off his legacy to pursue brighter lights.

The odds that James comes to Denver are miniscule. Then there’s the uphill battle to win an NBA title. This scenario is still the best chance Denver has at an NBA championship anytime soon.

The Miami Marlins are the other team that’s never won a division title, but they have two World Series titles as the Florida Marlins. Even with a fish tank gimmick in their ballpark and a grim future, the Marlins have at least caught the top prize.

The Rockies have that one National League pennant from 2007 that they painted on the scoreboard. It was replaced this year, for more pixels in the remodel and the pennant sign disappeared. That’s not much of an enduring legacy for the club.

A division title, even just one, would seem like such a major victory. This is the year they can take it.

The Dodgers have won the NL West title five years in a row, but are under the weather. The starting pitching staff that took Los Angeles to the World Series last year is crowding the disabled list.

The San Francisco Giants are vulnerable. They keep delaying the inevitable rebuilding they must do to hang onto their three World Series title glory days. They’re a mediocre team that believes it can still be great. The Rockies can beat them.

The Arizona Diamondbacks aren’t making waves in Phoenix (other than with an ugly stadium battle). The Rockies can match them on the field almost anywhere right now.

And the San Diego Padres can’t believe that they’re still within five games of the division lead — they don’t have a lot going for them.

So when the Rockies’ bullpen is blowing games, when the bats aren’t hitting on all cylinders, and when surefire starters like Jon Gray are struggling, all I can think is that another division title is slipping away.

At the current pace, the Rockies need only 86 wins to capture the division. They won 87 games last year to secure the Wild Card Game.

86 wins would be the lowest number for a division champion in baseball since 2008 — when the Dodgers won just 84 games to capture the NL West. It’s clearly within reach for the Rockies.

It also seems far away. With each year the Rockies don’t win the title — and with each blown game by the bullpen, the mountain they’ll need to climb in order to win this division towers over them a little more.

The roster’s construction itself is perplexing—another sign of a team without a plan. They spent a lot of money on long-term contracts for veterans who never did or no longer contribute significantly to the team’s success. They also have young players who are not yet at a stage in their development where they can help the team enough to play regularly.

The Nuggets also have on-court problems. The flow of the team has been an inconsistent compromise that hasn’t always put Jokic as the centerpiece of the game. Lastly, coach Michael Malone seems to have trouble communicating with his players at times and managing his rotation.

It’s clear that the Nuggets are keeping the hand they have with a front office run by Tim Connelly and Artūras Karnišovas overseeing Malone. So the changes will have to be pushed by this group. While watching each team in the NBA Final Four, the Nuggets can take a lesson on how to build the foundation of an organizational plan—since acquiring the assets will be tricky.

The Warriors’ Way

The Nuggets would benefit from a team culture like what Steve Kerr has created for the Warriors. Kerr played for Phil Jackson and Gregg Popovich. He played with Michael Jordan and Tim Duncan. He was a general manager overseeing D’Antoni. If anyone could learn to keep the peace on a talented roster, it’s Kerr. It’s a marvel to watch him pull it off.

Kerr is good at deflecting attention away from the players and onto himself to let them occupy their own space. His comments on social issues and his lighthearted nature on basketball issues allows players to take the spotlight only when they want to say something. Kerr empowers his players to have conversations among themselves and figure things out on their own.

If the Nuggets were to focus purely on culture, the Warriors have the blueprint. Foster an open communication style between players and coaches where the coach is always thinking in terms of putting his players in the best mindset to win.

The Rockets’ Way

The Rockets were built for coach Mike D’Antoni because his style best facilitated Houston’s star, James Harden. D’Antoni took the pieces he had and adjusted his system where necessary. The Rockets’ run-and-shoot style helped them secure the top seed in the West.

The Nuggets could work on creating a two-way street between the players and coach with a system that finds players whose strengths fit with how the coach wants the team to play. It would create a blueprint for a ‘Nuggets style’.

The Cavaliers’ Way 

The Cavaliers take the Warriors plan one step forward. They have outfitted themselves as a team ready to evolve to meet the needs of LeBron James in order to win a championship.

For the Nuggets to follow this approach, they would need to cater to the skills of their top players. Every decision would help Jokic, Jamal Murray and Gary Harris get better.

This strategy makes sense if the Nuggets believe that they have a core that can develop into superstar talent. This modified strategy would hopefully help that core like Cleveland does with James.

The Celtics’ Way

To do things the Celtics’ way, the Denver Nuggets will have to evolve. The Celtics appear to be in a category with only the New England Patriots in the NFL. This year, the Celtics pulled off great trades, signed big free agents and drafted well. Coach Brad Stevens obviously makes players better. Stevens adapts his strategy to exploit opponents’ weaknesses and amplify his player’s strengths He sees both sides of the chess board—like Bill Belichick.

I would love for the Nuggets to emulate the Celtics. The Avalanche, Rockies and Broncos should also become like the Celtics.

This is the best way to run a franchise. Unfortunately, the Nuggets and almost every other pro franchise can’t figure out how to make this work.

* * * * *

The Supreme Court on Monday overturned a federal ban on sports gambling, which means that all of the illegal sports betting that’s been going on for years can come out into the light. This is an end to shady offshore phone calls or frantic trips to Vegas. Now we will eventually play almost  anywhere.

This scenario of blaming the sports predictor is going to start playing out around the country—more openly. Big-name sports reporters, like the Colorado Springs Gazette’s Paul Klee, have already talked about times they’ve been harassed for losing other people’s money based on a prediction.

And now, the outrage from losing money can be upfront, specific and kind of scary.

The Jordan Lyles scenario was just one thing a prediction-maker would have to apologize for this week. There was much misguided hope that the Nuggets might win the NBA Draft lottery (at 200/1 odds) that everyone tuned in. The buzz made me wonder if the long shot could lead to a serendipitous moment worth betting on, even though everyone knew the odds.

The Nuggets lost the draft lottery, as expected — and as the math dictated.

Any rationale for betting on the Nuggets to win the lottery seems silly after the fact. We can’t come up with a formula to predict sports, so we start believing in superstitions and luck.

Sports gambling is a losing fight. To gamble on sports, you must be a sports fan, which causes you to be emotionally invested before you begin. The smart gamblers play the stock market. The sentimental ones play the sports book.

This emotional investment means that you can’t rationally bet on the Cleveland Cavaliers because you have an opinion on LeBron James. You lose money on the Super Bowl because of the shadow Bill Belichick casts everywhere. You hear the tide of people saying the Houston Rockets have already lost the series against the Golden State Warriors and light your money on fire before Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals.

This sports gambling thing is a tough business, and we’re all the fools who will lose money to it.

* * * * *

A lot of sports gambling is about having control over your emotions. On a random Thursday, you can invest yourself in an American League baseball game between the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners by putting some money on the game.

You can negate the heartache of your team losing by making the “rational” decision to bet against them.

You can even try to claim ownership of a team by placing a bet on them to win a championship.

It really is more about what you invest, rather than how much you invest. But it can cost you big-time. When it goes south, that’s where the sports prediction makers need to worry.

Prediction making is a staple of modern sports coverage. Radio, TV and internet personalities are always making guesses. Sometimes they throw out a thought to be contrarian. Often times they believe whatever they’re saying. That doesn’t make it true.

When some guy who writes online makes a dumb prediction, how much weight are you going to put behind that?

Not much, until they label themselves a gambling expert—like we see with Fantasy Football. The actual fantasy experts find themselves lumped together with anyone looking for a click.

At a site I used to write for, we were required to write ‘rumor’ articles. These articles were persuasively made up of half-truths about possible trades and gossip. Today, I’m guessing we would be asked to write ‘gambling advice’ articles with little knowledge of what’s likely to happen.

Here are my predictions. I’ll apologize for them now—as none of them are guaranteed.

The Rockies will not make the playoffs this year.
The Avalanche will sign Paul Stastny in free agency.
The Avalanche will win the Central Division in 2018-19.
The CU Buffs will beat Nebraska and finish below .500 in the Pac-12.
Paxton Lynch won’t make the Broncos’ 53-man roster.
The 2018 Broncos will finish 9-7.
Michael Malone will be the first NBA coach fired next season.
The Nuggets will still miss the playoffs.

Just as the Vegas oddsmaker’s job is to make money for the house—it is also the sports predictor’s job. The money they need to make is based on clicks on their site, not accurate gambling advice. With that equation in mind, I’m sure that I would not trust the sports predictors  — including me — with my money.

The second team to enter Las Vegas will be the Oakland Raiders. When Oakland moves to Nevada, the Broncos historical rival will bring their pitchfork-waving fans with them. The silver and gray body paint, bizarre costumes and bad-boy attitude will take over the city.

Assuming that John Elway figures out the Broncos and Jon Gruden figures out the Raiders, some pretty important games could take place in Vegas for Denver. It will only takes a small spark for the Raiders-Broncos rivalry to return to its former glory. Both fan bases crave a return to the hate-fueled days.

Vegas doesn’t look like a lovable, underdog sports town now, does it?

The next piece of the puzzle is the Major League Baseball team that will eventually end up in Vegas. There are several options, but the team could end up in the Rockies’ division, either through expansion or realignment.

The closest thing the Rockies have to a rival right now is the Arizona Diamondbacks, especially after last year’s Wild Card Game. The Diamondbacks are looking at options to move out of their current stadium, which Major League Baseball wants to be condemned. It seems likely that they will stay in Arizona, but a lot could change. If they ended up in Vegas (perhaps renamed the Vegas Snake Eyes?), a second rival would emerge in the city.

The last domino to fall (until the NBA adds a team in Vegas) is an Avalanche-Golden Knights rivalry. This could spring into existence over a couple of bruising playoff series. The Avalanche look ready to enter the playoffs regularly, so this seems like a possibility.

With three teams competing against each other repeatedly, every game would fuel the rivalry.

I still have a hard time having a rational conversation about hockey with a friend who is a Detroit Red Wings fan. The whole city of Detroit has a cloud over it for me because of the storied history between the Avalanche and the Red Wings. Imagine having that with Vegas? Southwest might start canceling flights between the cities.

Vegas is a fly-in city, while Denver is a fly-over city. Vegas’ casino model is about bringing everyone inside, while Denver is about getting people outdoors. Vegas is the oasis in the desert, while Denver is the city in the Rocky Mountains’ shadow. Denver is clean, while Vegas is…

For now, I’m still going to cheer on the Knights. The rivalry will have to begin down the road.

We froze, looked at each other, started clapping and cheered in unison, “GOOD ANSWER, GOOD ANSWER.”

It wasn’t.

Sure, Desmond was coming off his second All-Star season for the Texas Rangers, but he had never played first base. Then, during 2017’s spring training, he broke his hand and the Rockies had to bring Reynolds back to play first. Reynolds thrived while Desmond struggled to stay on the field because of injury and poor play.

This is what happens when you try to fit a player into a spot on the field that he doesn’t really play.

So this year, the Rockies decided to give the reins to one of their top prospects, Ryan McMahon, and move Desmond around the field when he wasn’t playing first base. McMahon was sent down to the minors this week after batting .180.

Even worse, Desmond is batting .173.

They played utility infielder Pat Valaika at first on Wednesday to give Desmond a break. They currently don’t have another first baseman on the roster. Valaika hasn’t shown that he can be an everyday player. Worse, Valaika played the second-worst defense in the Chicago Cubs series—only overshadowed by Cubs catcher Willson Contreras’ brief stint in left field.

The Rockies plan right now seems to be hoping that McMahon finds himself in the minors and hoping Desmond figures out how to play first base and to hit again. Their minor league affiliate, the Albuquerque Isotopes, play Jordan Patterson at first, but the Rockies didn’t call him up when the first base spot opened up. Patterson has even won a player of the week award in his Triple-A league, but the Rockies didn’t give him the call.

Mile High Sports’ Trevor Rich also broke down the Rockies infield options.

Part of the issue is a broader Rockies’ problem. Except for Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon, no one else is healthy and hitting all that well. Recent call-ups David Dahl and Noel Cuevas are showing some promise, but they’re just adding to a cluster of outfielders.

So maybe the Rockies could convert an outfielder?

Their options are really limited to Gerardo Parra and Carlos Gonzalez. Gonzalez’s outfield play makes it hard to see them moving him to first. However, Gonzalez has said he’s willing to play first base. Parra played first a few times last year, so maybe he’s an option. It just seems like playing people out of position isn’t a great idea.

The Rockies are stuck with this hole at first base. When Todd Helton rode off into the sunset on his horse, who knew it would be the hardest position to fill in Colorado.

Who’s on first for the Colorado Rockies?

Any answer, at this point, would be a good one.

The traditional hockey journalists and fans on the East Coast hated it. Despite the violence and chaos that accompanies playoff hockey on the ice, having fun around hockey is still frowned upon in some circles. Inducing country music and SEC-style football champs and celebrities invested in the game was treated with disdain by the “hockey elitists.” Nashville had a new kind of hockey fan base they cultivated for years, one that finally received continental attention last spring.

Then, Las Vegas entered the hockey scene. Expansion teams are supposed to be a novelty, but the Vegas Golden Knights are the real deal.

First, the city rallied around the Golden Knights as a mark of city unity after the shooting at the Route 91 Harvest Music Festival that killed 58 people. The Knights also embraced the city — retiring the number 58 during their last game of the regular season to memorialize the victims.

The Golden Knights franchise has included Vegas theatrics in the experience for their games. They have elaborate pregame ceremonies. The cheesy showmanship works for the Vegas team.

Now that Vegas has advanced to the second round, the hockey world has to grapple with what it means for teams to turn their beloved game into more of an event.

I don’t think anyone expected Denver to match the intensity of Nashville’s SEC-style, country music crowd. In some ways, I think the Pepsi Center crowd exceeded the precedent set in Nashville. It felt like the Avalanche had to fight the Nashville crowd in the first two games of the series, but not that the Predators successfully used much of the crowd’s energy. In Denver, the Predators had to fight the crowd and the Avs rode the wave of energy.

This idea seems to be shaping the identity of the team. In sports, Colorado will always have altitude. If the crowd can make people feel that extra pressure of playing at altitude, then I think it will be a success.

Denver became a place this week where every shift was an uphill battle. Every breath you take makes even elite athletes aware that they are not playing at sea level. I don’t know what else Denver can do to fully adopt the Avalanche in this new era, but I hope they keep looking for ways to maximize the home-ice advantage.

It’s good for hockey. It’s great for the city. It’s fantastic for a young Avalanche team that looks like a future Stanley Cup contender.